谈石工业报告: 电子行业 - 2023年8月 Stone Tan Industry Report: Electronics
谈石一直密切关注电子行业的发展。本次报告主要关注国内电子行业2023年上半年的表现，以及对2023年下半年的展望。
2022年/2023年H1增长及2023年预测 (营收)
手机（中国）- 根据IDC报告，2023年Q2，国内智能手机出货量为6570万部，与去年同期相比下降幅度缩小至2.1%（前六个月为-7%）。中国是全球最大的智能手机市场，但在经济增长乏力的背景下也面临困境。自2022年以来，每个季度的出货量都在下降，消费者因应后疫情经济下行而收紧预算。IDC分析师郭天祥提到，苹果及其竞争对手通常会在每年Q4发布新机，届时市场可能会有反弹，但增长可能低于预期。
手机（全球）- 根据IDC全球手机追踪报告的初步数据，2023年Q2，全球智能手机出货量为2.653亿部，同比下降7.8%（前六个月为-11%）。尽管这是市场连续第八个季度收缩，市场面临需求疲软、通货膨胀、宏观经济不确定性和过剩库存的挑战，但与前几个季度相比，下降的速度正在放缓。
PC - 根据Counterpoint的PC追踪数据，2023年Q2全球PC出货量同比下降15%，但环比增长8%。Gartner的研究总监Mikako Kitagawa表示：“PC市场的下降速度已经放缓，表明出货量可能已经触底。” “经过一年多努力，已在减少PC库存方面取得了进展，这得益于商务PC需求逐渐增长的支持。”Gartner预计到2023年底，PC库存将正常化，PC需求将从2024年开始回归增长。
服务器+ - IDC预测，从2022年到2027年，云基础设施的支出的复合年增长率（CAGR）为11.2%，在2027年达到1530亿美元，并占计算和存储基础设施总支出的69.0%。
半导体：2023年，预计欧洲和日本市场分别增长6.3%和1.2%，而上表中其他地区将面临下滑，其中北美市场下滑9.1%，亚太地区下滑15.1%。2024年，预计全球半导体市场激增11.8%，总额达到5760亿美元。这一增长预期主要由Memory（存储）驱动，预计在2024年恢复到1200亿美元的市场规模，增长超过40%。其他关键类别，包括Discrete（离散/分立器件）、Sensors（传感器）、Analog（模拟）、Logic（逻辑）和Micro（微处理器）等都预计呈单位数的增长。从区域的角度来看，预计所有地区在2024年都有不同幅度的增长。值得注意的是，预计北美和亚太地区将出现强劲的双位数同比增长。
半导体行业对汽车的影响 - 2023年中期，半导体供应不再限制汽车生产的拐点出现，但供应链仍然会受各方威胁影响，只不过威胁变成是偶发性的，并不再是系统性的。S&P Global Mobility 在最新的报告中指出，信息娱乐、安全和车辆自主系统在汽车行业中的需求比重增加，提升了汽车芯片在车辆中的用量。其供应商和零部件团队高级首席分析师Phil Amsrud指出，2020年汽车芯片的平均价值为500美元/车，预计到2028年将升至1400美元/车。
谈石密切关注中国各地制造业情况。表3显示了2022年5月与2023年5月的手机生产情况（来源 - 观研天下）。今年5月，广东仍然是主要的手机生产地，而河南下降到了第三位，产量同比下滑17%。与去年同期相比，四川省的产量增长了34%，成为国内手机生产的第二大地区。
5月中国手机各省/市产量排行榜 （同比）
2022年，四川全省电子信息产业实现营业收入16242.5亿元，同比增长9.2%。2022年宜宾智能终端产业逆势而上，实现产销手机整机6910万台，实现产值494亿元，正增长8.5%。宜宾最主要的公司是四川朵唯智能云谷有限公司。据了解，四川朵唯智能云谷生产的智能手机即将销往俄罗斯、东南亚等地。四川朵唯智能云谷已拥有智能主板贴装技术生产线17条，整机生产线61条，具备年产智能整机及主板6600万台（片）的生产能力，去年产值首次突破百亿大关。
Stone Tan pays close attention to the development of the electronics industry. The content of this report mainly includes the performance of China's electronics industry for 2023.
Mobile Phones (China) - According to the IDC report, in Q2 2023, domestic smartphone shipments were 65.7 million units, a decrease that narrowed to 2.1% compared to the same period last year (the first six months were -7%). China is the world's largest smartphone market, but it also faces challenges in the context of sluggish economic growth. Since 2022, shipments have been declining every quarter, and consumers are tightening budgets in response to the post-epidemic economic downturn. IDC analyst Guo Tianxiang mentioned that Apple and its competitors usually launch new models in Q4 each year, so the market may rebound by then, but the growth may be lower than expected.
Mobile Phones (Global) - According to preliminary data from the IDC Global Mobile Phone Tracking Report, in Q2 2023, global smartphone shipments were 265.3 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% (the first six months were -11%). This is the eighth consecutive quarter of market contraction. The market faces challenges such as weak demand, inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty, and excess inventory. However, the rate of decline is slowing compared to previous quarters.
PC - According to Counterpoint's PC tracking data, in Q2 2023, global PC shipments decreased by 15% year-on-year but increased by 8% month-on-month. Gartner Research Director Mikako Kitagawa said: "The decline in the PC market has slowed down, indicating that shipments may have bottomed out." "After more than a year of effort, progress has been made in reducing PC inventory, thanks to the support of gradually increasing business PC demand." Gartner expects that by the end of 2023, PC inventory will normalize, and PC demand will return to growth from 2024.
Server+ - IDC predicts that from 2022 to 2027, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of cloud infrastructure spending is 11.2%, reaching $153 billion in 2027, accounting for 69.0% of total computing and storage infrastructure spending.
Semiconductors: In 2023, the European and Japanese markets are expected to grow by 6.3% and 1.2% respectively, while other regions in the table above will face declines, with the North American market falling by 9.1% and the Asia-Pacific region declining by 15.1%. In 2024, the global semiconductor market is expected to surge by 11.8%, with a total of $576 billion. This growth expectation is mainly driven by Memory, which is expected to return to a market size of $120 billion in 2024, with a growth of over 40%. Other key categories, including Discrete, Sensors, Analog, Logic, and Micro, are all expected to grow in single digits. From a regional perspective, all regions are expected to grow at different rates in 2024. Notably, strong double-digit year-on-year growth is expected in North America and the Asia-Pacific region.
Impact of the Semiconductor Industry on Automotive Industry - By mid-2023, the turning point where semiconductor supply no longer limits car production will appear, but the supply chain will still be threatened from all sides, only the threats will be sporadic and no longer systematic. S&P Global Mobility pointed out in its latest report that the demand for infotainment, safety, and autonomous vehicle systems in the automotive industry has increased, increasing the use of automotive chips in vehicles. Phil Amsrud, Senior Chief Analyst of its supplier and parts team, pointed out that the average value of automotive chips was $500/car in 2020, and it is expected to rise to $1,400/car by 2028.
Stone Tan closely monitors the manufacturing situation in various parts of China. The table below shows the mobile phone production situation in May 2022 and May 2023 (Source - Guanyan Tianxia). This May, Guangdong remains the main mobile phone production base, while Henan has dropped to third place, with production decreasing by 17% year-on-year. Compared to the same period last year, Sichuan's production increased by 34%, becoming the second-largest region for mobile phone production in China.
In 2022, the electronic information industry in Sichuan province achieved a revenue of 1,624.25 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year. In 2022, Yibin's smart terminal industry went against the trend, achieving a production and sales of 69.1 million mobile phone units, with a production value of 49.4 billion yuan, a positive growth of 8.5%. The most important company in Yibin is Sichuan Duowei Smart Cloud Valley Co., Ltd. It is understood that smartphones produced by Sichuan Duowei Smart Cloud Valley will soon be sold to Russia, Southeast Asia, and other places. Sichuan Duowei Smart Cloud Valley already has 17 intelligent motherboard assembly technology production lines and 61 complete machine production lines, with an annual production capacity of 66 million smart machines and motherboards. Last year, the production value exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time.
