谈石工业报告: 汽车行业 - 2023年1-9月 Stone Tan Industry Report: Automotive
谈石工业报告: 汽车行业 - 2023年1-9月
根据中国汽车工业协会最新数据，9月我国汽车产销分别为285万辆和285.8万辆，同比分别增长6.6%和9.5%。乘用车产销分别为249.6万辆和248.7万辆，同比分别增长3.5%和6.6%。今年1－9月乘用车累计产销分别为1816.8万辆和1813万辆，同比分别增长5.6%和6.7%。
9月新能源汽车产销分别为87.9万辆和90.4万辆，同比分别增长16.1%和27.7%，新能源汽车的新车销量占汽车新车总销量的31.6%。1－9月新能源汽车累计产销分别为631.3万辆和627.8万辆，同比分别增长33.7%和37.5%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的29.8%。
此外，9月汽车整车出口为44.4万辆，同比增长47.7%，其中新能源汽车出口为9.6万辆，同比增长92.8%。1－9月汽车整车累计出口338.8万辆，同比增长60%，其中新能源汽车出口82.5万辆，同比增长1.1倍。
根据美国银行的预测，2023年中国汽车销量将达到29,406,958辆，增长9%（包含国内销量和出口），并预测2024年和2025年中国汽车销量增速将分别放缓至2.8%和3.1%，主要因乘用车和商用车销售增速放缓。未来增长的主要驱动力来自新能源汽车的销售和出口。美国银行预测2024年中国新能源车汽车的销量将达到汽车总销量的40%以上。
Jan-September 2023 China Auto Production and Sales data
According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.85 million units and 2.858 million units respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and 9.5%. The production and sales of passenger cars were 2.496 million units and 2.487 million units respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 6.6%. From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars were 18.168 million units and 18.13 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and 6.7%.
In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 879,000 units and 904,000 units respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and 27.7%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 31.6% of the total new car sales. From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.313 million units and 6.278 million units respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 37.5%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 29.8% of the total new car sales.
In addition, in September, the export of complete automobiles was 444,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 96,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8%. From January to September, the cumulative export of complete automobiles was 3.388 million units, a year-on-year increase of 60%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 825,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 110%.
Bank of America China Automotive Forecast 2023-2025 (Sales)
According to the forecast by Bank of America, China's automobile sales will reach 29,406,958 units in 2023, growing by 9% (including domestic sales and exports). It is predicted that the growth rate of China's automobile sales will slow down to 2.8% and 3.1% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, mainly due to the slowdown in the sales growth of passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The main driving force for future growth comes from the sales and exports of new energy vehicles. Bank of America predicts that by 2024, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will account for more than 40% of the total automobile sales.
